Thursday, May 31, 2012

Clarification And 11 Rules Of Investing

I've had a couple of emails from people asking why I currrently find stocks to be attractively valued in today's confusing and uncertain market/economy...great and fair question.  As I've written, I do not find it to be prudent to "go all in" and take all of your money and invest it in stocks all at once.  I prefer the tip toe approach where you slowly dip your toe in the proverbial water (stock market).  It is impossible to "time" the market or know when stocks will start to move up in unison because history shows us that stocks do not move up or down in straight lines.  So to answer the question of why do I like stocks so much, I like the low price of stocks and therefore I am slowly buying shares of great companies that I follow and research because I am of the belief that over the course of the next year, stocks will be much higher than they are right now. 
Think about this quote from the famous investor Walt Deemer, "when the time comes to buy (stocks), you won't want to"...

Here are 10 rules of investing that Bob Farrell, a long time successful money manager, has used to guide his investment decisions over the years (and I try to adhere to them as well):

1. Markets tend to return to the mean (to average) over time.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3. There are no new eras -- excesses are never permanent (think about the housing market or the technology bubble).
4. Exponentially rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
5. The public buys the most at a top and the least at a bottom (this is 100% true).
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7. Bull markets (good markets) are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.
8. Bear markets (bad markets) have three stages -- sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn out fundamental downtrend.
9. When the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen (don't always follow the crowd).
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets (umm yeah!).