Tobias Levkovich from Citigroup, is one of the most intellectual and well regarded stock analysts on Wall Street. He's been pretty dead on in his research and understanding the direction of the markets over the past several decades...he was even ahead of the curve in forecasting the big selloff in stocks and then the housing bubble; I've followed his research for years and always take what he says to heart. This morning he put out a research report which was passed on to me by a fellow money manager. His belief that we could see a decent correct/selloff in the markets over the remaing months of the year echoes my own opinon that such could happen....of course I don't have a crystal ball (although that'd be awesome) but I always prefer to be safe than sorry.
Here's what he wrote (in summary):
The Panic/Euphoria Model is sending a clear warning sign of substantial complacency. The investment community's mindset is widely monitored and investors anecdotally have become more bullish in conversations and meetings looking to an expected traditional late-year seasonal rally, despite a better than 20% move year-to-date. Citi's proprietary sentiment tracker now has climbed to about its highest level since 2008 and it is approaching euphoria territory, which is worrisome."
--Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
