Monday, June 8, 2015

Dog Days Of Summer (Boring Post)

This is my investment blueprint for the Summer and it is based on the following expectations: Stocks move irregularly lower -- but not in a straight line. I plan to maintain my international mutual funds as they are outperforming the U.S. stock market funds (and I expect that will continue). I will also hold on to my U.S. Large Cap and Mid Cap mutual funds and if the markets move lower over the summer I will add to my existing fund positions. My expectation is that the S&P 500 makes a series of lower highs and lower lows over the next few months. As I've said multiple times, this is not an investing market but rather a "trading" market; by that I mean the volatility is going to be wild but the markets will likely move sideways (the fluid and active investor could buy and sell over and over and make good profits but since most investors use Mutual Funds as their investment vehicles this is not possible - and this is b/c Mutual Funds have short term trading restriction so they must be held for periods of time or fees/penalties will be assessed). Surprisingly, while Government Bonds usually act as a safe haven for investors, the investment yields that are being offered are not attractive. That being said, Municipal Bonds are extremely attractive b/c munis are mispriced in general, with non-taxable yields over 20% above taxables -- a condition I don't expect to continue. In addition, tax-exempt yields of 6% or more coupled with 10% discounts to net asset value (NAV) is tasty to me. Simply put, Im looking for the markets to move sideways over the coming months, and while there will be wild swings up and down such as we've seen so far this year, stocks will have more bark rather than bite (dog reference of course).