Friday, December 4, 2015

FYI

As I want anyone who reads this to know, I don't give advice. What I do is attempt to chronicle what, why and when I'm buying or selling any individual stocks or mutual funds, and I support my actions with observations and analysis.
That said, I think the last few days are likely a warning sign for investors -- maybe not for today, tomorrow or next week, but perhaps for 2016.
No one knows where the market is heading over the near term, but I do have a strong conviction that volatility is on the ascent and that the only certainty is a lack of certainty!
As such, my recommendation remains the same: Reduce your portfolio's "Value at Risk" (VAR). Risk-parity strategies allocate on volatility, and we should do the same these days.
Smaller positions seem more appropriate in a setting in which many outcomes could crop up, some of them unfriendly to markets. If volatility rises as I expect, smaller positions will have the same impact that larger positions had a while ago in the market's previous, less-volatile backdrop.
Tis the holiday season to be merry and while (as I've said time and time again) I am uncertain as to what the near term holds, history has proved that investing in the stock market will in fact increase an investors portfolio so I remain positive over the longer term.