- The Federal Reserve (and actually other monetary bodies around the world such as the European Central Bank)
- Oil (stocks have been moving in tandem with oil over the past several weeks; when oil goes up stocks usually go up, and the same goes for when oil goes down)
- China (their economy is slowing, and their stock market has been getting crushed)
Today the Federal Reserve released their 1st quarter meeting notes (after having raised rates at their last one) and here's what my takeaway from them was:
- The Fed repeats that the economy is expected to warrant only gradual rate rises.- The Fed is assessing global developments for its balance-of-risk view.- The Fed fund futures price the next rate hike in the second half of the year. - The Fed's comments conform generally to my expectations expressed earlier today and appear to be market-friendly, as they are tilting dovish:
The markets have begun to selloff again the release of the minutes as many see that the FED is actually slightly concerned about the economy and stock market (which they absolutely should be - no big surprise there). I for one am thinking about adding to my international and large cap U.S. mutual funds slightly. I'm also eyeing some individual stocks in the banking and technology sectors. This is still a very ugly investing environment with the average mutual fund being down close to double digits already....
Looking out over the next several weeks and month, I believe (tho I am no way sure - don't believe anyone who is headstrong in their market observations - I personally follow/listen to/ and often communicate with some of the most successful investors in the business so I take what they say with high regard) that retail spending will pick up, the stock market will probably rebound a bit and then trade sideways, and it will be a long frustrating next month or so. I do think some money can be made over the short to intermediate term by buying stocks and adding money to mutual fund holdings while everyone is so negative and things are so ugly. Buy when things are ugly and look to sell when things are wonderful and happy (buy low sell high)...